Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 105.154396 120.159128 137.024337 157.476656 181.729623 209.720743 244.686539
2026-01-11 86.655795 106.102338 129.887396 161.457766 202.771414 255.713999 329.868491
2026-01-18 74.487559 95.882585 123.725588 163.288288 219.175728 297.053222 416.999094
2026-01-25 65.406742 87.548602 117.809440 163.235510 231.581566 333.808663 504.834446
2026-02-01 57.595451 79.547926 110.762284 159.786440 237.549513 361.133272 583.479990
2026-02-08 51.344741 72.824050 104.416071 156.014019 241.755366 385.627675 662.325458
2026-02-15 46.337120 67.267422 98.982506 152.621308 245.582093 409.560327 745.314569
2026-02-22 44.785828 66.715185 101.068178 161.508204 271.434651 476.986482 930.561839
2026-03-01 41.999002 63.889644 99.127531 163.183456 284.501259 522.937060 1084.617279
2026-03-08 39.654172 61.515089 97.615008 165.303559 298.586369 573.579115 1264.990471
2026-03-15 37.188300 58.690401 95.007117 165.009864 307.771688 615.716717 1438.586988
2026-03-22 36.386291 58.585745 97.082178 173.749600 336.805809 708.054920 1778.038618
2026-03-29 35.237690 57.839979 98.048040 180.723228 364.025820 804.737909 2178.240085
2026-04-05 33.953906 56.736279 98.239352 186.180811 389.044438 903.229295 2635.255219
2026-04-12 32.399582 54.995191 97.031357 188.521790 407.259387 989.176977 3097.891413
2026-04-19 30.722248 52.877768 94.872098 188.495165 419.710505 1062.833260 3559.199499
2026-04-26 28.769742 50.083447 91.106527 184.401237 421.131259 1104.868374 3921.228794
2026-05-03 26.958156 47.422897 87.373056 179.920213 420.781328 1141.702099 4286.246980
2026-05-10 25.353841 45.046549 84.012122 175.892415 420.955579 1180.495430 4688.084324
2026-05-17 25.208557 45.525550 86.630657 186.450554 463.873864 1376.329537 6031.620354
2026-05-24 24.312960 44.430616 85.796682 188.443250 482.568810 1494.290674 7071.050661
2026-05-31 23.520961 43.486816 85.202740 190.966145 503.465413 1628.607389 8352.629445
2026-06-07 22.561425 42.128805 83.575145 190.616582 515.431884 1732.869132 9558.621456